Sloane Stephens vs Clara Tauson — US Open Round of 128
DEN
Stephens S.
Sloane Stephens faces Clara Tauson in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Clara Tauson holds the paper edge — ranked #42, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Tauson C. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Sloane Stephens 86 games in 14 days, Clara Tauson 130.
- Stage: Clara Tauson defends last year's round of 128.
- Surface form: Sloane Stephens 6 of 10, Clara Tauson 5 of 10 on hard recently — Sloane Stephens the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadStephens S.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Tauson C.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 77 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.