Daria Snigur vs Diana Shnaider — US Open Round of 128
RUS15
Snigur D.
Daria Snigur faces Diana Shnaider in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Diana Shnaider is the paper favourite — ranked #16, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage — but Daria Snigur arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 8 on hard to Diana Shnaider's 5.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Shnaider D. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Daria Snigur 28 games in 14 days, Diana Shnaider 61.
- Serve & return: Diana Shnaider brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 33), Daria Snigur the stronger return game (Return Rating 80).
- Stage: Diana Shnaider defends last year's round of 128.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (52 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSnigur D.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Shnaider D.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.