Aryna Sabalenka vs Maria Camila Osorio Serrano — US Open Round of 128
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Sabalenka A.
Aryna Sabalenka faces Maria Camila Osorio Serrano in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Aryna Sabalenka holds the paper edge — ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending the title.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Aryna Sabalenka 76 games in 14 days, Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 15.
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Wimbledon 2021.
- Surface form: Aryna Sabalenka 3 of 5, Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 2 of 5 on hard recently — Aryna Sabalenka the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonwins 59% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadSabalenka A.: 9 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Camila Osorio Serrano M.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-02 | Wimbledon | R32 | grass | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-0 6-3 |