Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova — US Open Round of 128
JPN13
Osaka N.
Naomi Osaka faces Anastasia Zakharova in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Naomi Osaka holds the paper edge — ranked #13, defending last year's semi-final, a roughly 210-point hard Elo advantage.
Around the match
Withdrew from Cincinnati citing fatigue for the second consecutive year, raising uncertainty over her exact fitness and seeding heading into the draw.
Osaka N.tennismajors.com ↗
Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Osaka N. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Naomi Osaka comes in with 18 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Anastasia Zakharova's 4 and 38.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Naomi Osaka has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 88 vs 55).
- Stage: Naomi Osaka defends last year's semi-final; Anastasia Zakharova defends last year's round of 64.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 46). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadOsaka N.: 18 days rest · Zakharova A.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.