Kaitlin Quevedo vs Elise Mertens — US Open Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Round of 128
ESP
Kaitlin Quevedo
#107WTA
1757ELO
1655Hard ELO
20 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWWWLLWL
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
Elise Mertens
BEL23
Elise Mertens
#24WTA
1894ELO
1847Hard ELO
$2.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
30 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLLWLWWW
Quevedo K.
vs
Mertens E.

Kaitlin Quevedo faces Elise Mertens in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Elise Mertens holds the paper edge — ranked #24, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 190-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Quevedo K.32%
Mertens E.68%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Mertens E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
3 common opponents · Quevedo K. 1–2 · Mertens E. 2–3 · small sample
Both lost · same surface, 45 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Quevedo K.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Mertens E.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.6Hard Elo 1654
Surface ELO
7.4+193 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1757
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1894
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.15 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

40 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
Quevedo K.Mertens E.
1st serve in·Even
61%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
47%
Service points won·Even
57%
61%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Even
53%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.6
4.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.9
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Quevedo K.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Mertens E.

Mertens E.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Quevedo K.

Serve advantage — Mertens E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Quevedo K.Mertens E.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
54
72
Break points saved·Dominant
30
65
Break points won·Clear edge
77
97
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
71
Tiebreaks·
—
71

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Quevedo K.Mertens E.
Freshness·Dominant
89
55

Quevedo K.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Mertens E.: played today · 3 matches, 68 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw