Jakub Mensik vs Shintaro Mochizuki — US Open Round of 128
CZE17
JPNLL
Mensik J.
Jakub Mensik faces Shintaro Mochizuki in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Jakub Mensik holds the paper edge — ranked #18, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 470-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Mensik J. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Jakub Mensik has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 84 vs 27).
- Freshness: Jakub Mensik comes in with 10 days of rest and 84 games in 14d, vs Shintaro Mochizuki's 1 and 89.
- Surface form: Jakub Mensik 6 of 9, Shintaro Mochizuki 4 of 9 on hard recently — Jakub Mensik the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMensik J.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Mochizuki S.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 58 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.