Hiroki Moriya vs Grigoriy LomakinZhangjiagang Qualifying Round of 32

Zhangjiagang · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round of 32
#515ATP
1353ELO
1321Hard ELO
35 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLLLWLWL
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 6 · 2nd on
#896ATP
28 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLWLWLW
Moriya H.
vs
Lomakin G.

Hiroki Moriya faces Grigoriy Lomakin in the Zhangjiagang qualifying round of 32 on hard. Hiroki Moriya is the paper favourite — ranked #515 — but Grigoriy Lomakin arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 8 on hard to Hiroki Moriya's 2.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Moriya H.63%
Lomakin G.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Moriya H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Surface form: Hiroki Moriya 2 of 8, Grigoriy Lomakin 3 of 8 on hard recently — Grigoriy Lomakin the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Grigoriy Lomakin carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.82 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.15 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

27 vs 10 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
45%
Service points won·Even
61%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
33%
Break points saved·Even
57%
54%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.1
7.2
Double faults / match·Even
3.1
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Moriya H.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Lomakin G.

Lomakin G.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Moriya H.

Serve advantage — Moriya H.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

When it starts

2nd on COURT 6 · Followed By · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 1Charlton J. v Kumasaka T.
  2. 2Moriya H. v Lomakin G.This match
  3. 3Park U. v Isomura K.

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CThunderstorm
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 84%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw