Valentin Vacherot vs Aleksandar KovacevicUS Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
#23ATP
1903ELO
1852Hard ELO
$1.0MYTD
$3.5MCAREER
27 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLWWLLWW
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
#89ATP
1636ELO
1611Hard ELO
$637kYTD
$3.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWLLLL
Vacherot V.
vs
Kovacevic A.

Valentin Vacherot faces Aleksandar Kovacevic in the US Open round of 128 on hard. They have met once, Aleksandar Kovacevic leading 1–0, though this is their first meeting on hard.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Vacherot V.84%
Kovacevic A.16%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Vacherot V. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
9 common opponents · Vacherot V. 7–2 · Kovacevic A. 3–8
Vacherot V. better · same surface
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.0+241 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.0Hard Elo 1611
8.3Overall Elo 1903
ELO gap
1.7Overall Elo 1636
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
4.75 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.25 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

26 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
68%
67%
Return points won·Even
34%
31%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
61%
Aces / match·Even
10.3
10.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.0
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Vacherot V.serving95% hold

wins 76% of points on serve vs Kovacevic A.

Kovacevic A.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Vacherot V.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
69
27
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
90
Break points won·Dominant
33
0
Deciding sets·Dominant
95
41
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
66
51

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
99
54

Vacherot V.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Kovacevic A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 95 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-04-22Madrid MastersQ2clayAleksandar Kovacevic6-4 6-2

Draw