Madison Keys vs Alina Korneeva — US Open Round of 128
USA22
Keys M.
Madison Keys faces Alina Korneeva in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Madison Keys is the paper favourite — ranked #23, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage — but Alina Korneeva arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 7 on hard to Madison Keys's 4.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Keys M. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Madison Keys comes in with 8 days of rest and 99 games in 14d, vs Alina Korneeva's 18 and 0.
- Stage: Madison Keys defends last year's round of 128.
- Surface form: Madison Keys 4 of 7, Alina Korneeva 5 of 7 on hard recently — Alina Korneeva the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadKeys M.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Korneeva A.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.