Anhelina Kalinina vs Himeno Sakatsume — US Open Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Round of 128
Anhelina Kalinina
UKR
Anhelina Kalinina
#49WTA
1827ELO
1743Hard ELO
29 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWWLLLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
JPNQ
Himeno Sakatsume
#144WTA
1611ELO
1599Hard ELO
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLLLLWWL
Kalinina A.
vs
Sakatsume H.

Anhelina Kalinina faces Himeno Sakatsume in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Anhelina Kalinina is the paper favourite — ranked #49, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage — but Himeno Sakatsume rides a 3-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Kalinina A.61%
Sakatsume H.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Kalinina A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
8 common opponents · Kalinina A. 9–1 · Sakatsume H. 6–2
Both won · different surfaces (Clay × Hard)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kalinina A.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Sakatsume H.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.8+144 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Hard Elo 1599
7.7Overall Elo 1827
ELO gap
2.3Overall Elo 1611
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.04 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

52 vs 44 matches

Statistics

This season
Kalinina A.Sakatsume H.
1st serve in·Even
69%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
48%
Service points won·Even
57%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
49%
43%
Break points saved·Even
60%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.4
2.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (52 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kalinina A.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Sakatsume H.

Sakatsume H.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Kalinina A.

Serve advantage — Kalinina A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Kalinina A.Sakatsume H.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
41
62
Break points saved·Dominant
11
64
Break points won·Slight edge
89
97
Deciding sets·Clear edge
85
62
Tiebreaks·
5
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Kalinina A.Sakatsume H.
Freshness·Dominant
98
69

Kalinina A.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Sakatsume H.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°CRain
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 82%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw