Elvina Kalieva vs Lanlana Tararudee — US Open Round of 128
Kalieva E.
Elvina Kalieva faces Lanlana Tararudee in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Lanlana Tararudee is the paper favourite — ranked #72, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage — but Elvina Kalieva rides a 3-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Tararudee L. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Elvina Kalieva 82 games in 14 days, Lanlana Tararudee 34.
- Under pressure: Lanlana Tararudee has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 70 vs Elvina Kalieva's 18).
- Last match: Elvina Kalieva dropped the opening set before beating Vendula Valdmannova 5–7 6–4 6–4.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 58). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadKalieva E.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 82 games (7d) · Tararudee L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.