Arantxa Rus vs Leolia Jeanjean — US Open Round of 128
Rus A.
Arantxa Rus faces Leolia Jeanjean in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Leolia Jeanjean is the paper favourite — ranked #127, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage — but Arantxa Rus arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 5 on hard to Leolia Jeanjean's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Jeanjean L. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Leolia Jeanjean has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 78 vs Arantxa Rus's 0).
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Arantxa Rus 49 games in 14 days, Leolia Jeanjean 28.
- Surface form: Arantxa Rus 3 of 5, Leolia Jeanjean 2 of 5 on hard recently — Arantxa Rus the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadRus A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Jeanjean L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.