Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo — US Open Round of 128
CHI25
Hanfmann Y.
Yannick Hanfmann faces Alejandro Tabilo in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Alejandro Tabilo is the paper favourite — ranked #28, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's round of 128 — but Yannick Hanfmann arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 5 on hard to Alejandro Tabilo's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Yannick Hanfmann rising, Alejandro Tabilo cooling.
- Head-to-head: Alejandro Tabilo leads the head-to-head 2–1, 1–0 on hard. Last met at Davis Cup Finals RR: GER vs CHI 2024.
- Surface form: Yannick Hanfmann 3 of 5, Alejandro Tabilo 2 of 5 on hard recently — Yannick Hanfmann the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadHanfmann Y.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Tabilo A.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-12 | Davis Cup Finals RR: GER vs CHI | RR | hard | Yannick Hanfmann | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2024-05-06 | Rome Masters | R64 | clay | Alejandro Tabilo | 6-3 7-6 |
| 2024-02-12 | Buenos Aires | R32 | clay | Alejandro Tabilo | 6-1 6-3 |