Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex De Minaur — US Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
ITAQ
Andrea Guerrieri
#187ATP
1545ELO
1393Hard ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWLWWW
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
Alex De Minaur
AUS6
Alex De Minaur
#7ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWLWWLW
Guerrieri A.
vs
De Minaur A.

Andrea Guerrieri faces Alex De Minaur in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Alex De Minaur is the paper favourite — ranked #7, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 540-point hard Elo advantage — but Andrea Guerrieri arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 8 on hard to Alex De Minaur's 5.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Guerrieri A.12%
De Minaur A.88%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · De Minaur A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Guerrieri A.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
De Minaur A.
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1393
Surface ELO
10.0+542 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1545
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 1961
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.18 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.25 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
7.0Reached the quarters here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

30 vs 36 matches

Statistics

This season
Guerrieri A.De Minaur A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
71%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
64%
Return points won·Even
44%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
69%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.4
4.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Guerrieri A.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

De Minaur A.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Guerrieri A.

Serve advantage — De Minaur A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Guerrieri A.De Minaur A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
62
95
Break points saved·Clear edge
80
98
Break points won·Dominant
40
97
Deciding sets·Clear edge
84
96
Tiebreaks·
—
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Guerrieri A.De Minaur A.
Freshness·Dominant
62
92

Guerrieri A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 74 games (7d) · De Minaur A.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw