Thea Frodin vs Elena Rybakina — US Open Round of 128
US Open · WTA · Round of 128
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
KAZ2#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWWWWW
Frodin T.vs
Rybakina E.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTCFrodin T.6%
Rybakina E.94%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limitedForm & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
5.56 of last 10 on hard
Surface form7.58 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
18 vs 43 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
57%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
54%
64%
Return points won·Even
45%
42%
Break points saved·Clear edge
48%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.6
6.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
7.9
2.5
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonServe advantage — Rybakina E.
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadFreshness·
—
92
Rybakina E.: 9 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.