Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Fils — US Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
Stefanos Tsitsipas
GRE
Stefanos Tsitsipas
#53ATP
1833ELO
1803Hard ELO
$1000kYTD
$38MCAREER
28 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLWWLWW
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
Arthur Fils
FRA10
Arthur Fils
#11ATP
2001ELO
1930Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$7.9MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWLWWW
Tsitsipas S.
vs
Fils A.

Stefanos Tsitsipas faces Arthur Fils in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Arthur Fils holds the paper edge — ranked #11, leading the head-to-head 5–0, a roughly 130-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Tsitsipas S.25%
Fils A.75%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fils A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
6 common opponents · Tsitsipas S. 4–4 · Fils A. 6–2
Fils A. better · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Tsitsipas S.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Fils A.
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.4Hard Elo 1802
Surface ELO
6.6+127 Hard Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1833
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 2001
1.8Trails 0–3 on hard
H2H
8.2Leads 3–0 on hard
4.95 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
9.29 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

34 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
Tsitsipas S.Fils A.
1st serve in·Even
63%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
78%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
57%
Service points won·Even
69%
68%
Return points won·Even
34%
35%
Break points saved·Even
68%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.9
4.8
Double faults / match·Even
2.2
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Tsitsipas S.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Fils A.

Fils A.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Tsitsipas S.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Tsitsipas S.Fils A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
81
Break points saved·Even
99
96
Break points won·Clear edge
71
54
Deciding sets·Even
99
98
Tiebreaks·Even
95
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Tsitsipas S.Fils A.
Freshness·Even
78
78

Tsitsipas S.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d) · Fils A.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

0–5
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-18Miami MastersR32hardArthur Fils6-0 6-1
2025-05-07Rome MastersR32clayArthur Fils2-6 6-4 6-2
2025-04-14BarcelonaQFclayArthur Fils2-0
2024-10-21BaselQFhardArthur Fils7-6 6-3
2023-10-16AntwerpSFhardArthur Fils7-6 7-6
View full head-to-head →

Draw