Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti — US Open Round of 128
GBR
ITA13
Fery A.
Arthur Fery faces Lorenzo Musetti in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Lorenzo Musetti is the paper favourite — ranked #14, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage — but Arthur Fery arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 6 on hard to Lorenzo Musetti's 4.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Musetti L. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Arthur Fery comes in with 0 days of rest and 136 games in 14d, vs Lorenzo Musetti's 8 and 79.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Lorenzo Musetti has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 89 vs 61).
- Win streak: Arthur Fery arrives on a 4-match winning run.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFery A.: played today · 4 matches, 80 games (7d) · Musetti L.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.