Mary Stoiana vs Alexandra Eala — US Open Round of 128
PHI17
Stoiana M.
Mary Stoiana faces Alexandra Eala in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Alexandra Eala is the paper favourite — ranked #18, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 64 — but Mary Stoiana rides a 3-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Eala A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Mary Stoiana comes in with 1 days of rest and 79 games in 14d, vs Alexandra Eala's 11 and 38.
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Alexandra Eala rising, Mary Stoiana cooling.
- Head-to-head: Alexandra Eala leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at W100 Landisville 1 2024.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (48 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadStoiana M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 79 games (7d) · Eala A.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-09 | W100 Landisville 1 | R16 | hard | Alexandra Eala | 7-5 6-2 |