Mariano Navone vs Novak Djokovic — US Open Round of 128
SRB4
Navone M.
Mariano Navone faces Novak Djokovic in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Novak Djokovic holds the paper edge — ranked #5, defending last year's semi-final, a roughly 330-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Djokovic N. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Mariano Navone comes in with 3 days of rest and 41 games in 14d, vs Novak Djokovic's 14 and 28.
- Serve & return: Novak Djokovic brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 66), Mariano Navone the stronger return game (Return Rating 96).
- Stage: Mariano Navone defends last year's round of 128; Novak Djokovic defends last year's semi-final.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadNavone M.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Djokovic N.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.