Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns — US Open Round of 128
Dart H.
Harriet Dart faces Peyton Stearns in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Peyton Stearns is the paper favourite — ranked #54, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 170-point hard Elo advantage — but Harriet Dart arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 6 on hard to Peyton Stearns's 3. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Stearns P. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Harriet Dart comes in with 1 days of rest and 78 games in 14d, vs Peyton Stearns's 13 and 32.
- Last match: Harriet Dart dropped the opening set before beating Heather Watson 2–6 6–4 6–1.
- Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1. Last met at Cincinnati 2026.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadDart H.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d) · Stearns P.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Cincinnati | R128 | hard | Peyton Stearns | 6-1 7-6 |
| 2021-08-25 | US Open | Q128 | hard | Harriet Dart | 6-3 4-6 6-3 |