Martin Damm vs Frances Tiafoe — US Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
Martin Damm
USA
Martin Damm
#92ATP
1706ELO
1657Hard ELO
$338kYTD
$910kCAREER
22 yrs · 203 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWLLWLWWL
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
Frances Tiafoe
USA11
Frances Tiafoe
#12ATP
1918ELO
1861Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWLWLL
Damm M.
vs
Tiafoe F.

Martin Damm faces Frances Tiafoe in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Frances Tiafoe holds the paper edge — ranked #12, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 32. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Damm M.31%
Tiafoe F.69%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Tiafoe F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
12 common opponents · Damm M. 5–7 · Tiafoe F. 7–7
Both lost · same surface, 14 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Damm M.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Tiafoe F.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.4Hard Elo 1657
Surface ELO
7.6+205 Hard Elo edge
2.3Overall Elo 1706
ELO gap
7.7Overall Elo 1918
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
5.56 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.07 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

36 vs 43 matches

Statistics

This season
Damm M.Tiafoe F.
1st serve in·Even
64%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
78%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
54%
Service points won·Even
69%
67%
Return points won·Even
32%
35%
Break points saved·Even
66%
68%
Aces / match·Dominant
12.6
7.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.9
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Damm M.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Tiafoe F.

Tiafoe F.serving94% hold

wins 74% of points on serve vs Damm M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Damm M.Tiafoe F.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
26
74
Break points saved·Even
93
97
Break points won·Dominant
1
45
Deciding sets·Dominant
5
86
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
84
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Damm M.Tiafoe F.
Freshness·Slight edge
69
75

Damm M.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d) · Tiafoe F.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-25US OpenR64hardFrances Tiafoe6-4 7-5 6-7 7-5

Draw