Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Katerina SiniakovaUS Open Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Round of 128
#66WTA
1805ELO
1773Hard ELO
$555kYTD
$3.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 166 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWWLLLLL
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
#39WTA
1846ELO
1807Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$17MCAREER
30 yrs · 174 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWLLWWW
Cocciaretto E.
vs
Siniakova K.

Elisabetta Cocciaretto faces Katerina Siniakova in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Katerina Siniakova holds the paper edge — ranked #39, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's round of 128.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Cocciaretto E.51%
Siniakova K.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
4 common opponents · Cocciaretto E. 3–1 · Siniakova K. 2–4 · small sample
Both lost · different surfaces (Clay × Grass)
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.6Hard Elo 1772
Surface ELO
5.4+34 Hard Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1805
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1846
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.06 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.84 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

31 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
45%
Service points won·Even
59%
56%
Return points won·Even
44%
44%
Break points saved·Even
58%
61%
Aces / match·Even
1.6
1.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.3
4.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Cocciaretto E.serving75% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Siniakova K.

Siniakova K.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Cocciaretto E.

Serve advantage — Cocciaretto E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
25
35
Break points saved·Even
23
21
Break points won·Slight edge
86
92
Deciding sets·Slight edge
12
21
Tiebreaks·Dominant
50
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
95

Cocciaretto E.: 15 days rest · Siniakova K.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°CRain
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 82%

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-06-26Bad HomburgR32grassKaterina Siniakova6-3 6-4
2023-02-20MeridaQFhardKaterina Siniakova6-1 5-7 6-0
2022-07-11BudapestR16clayElisabetta Cocciaretto7-5 4-6 7-5

Draw