Julia Grabher vs Sorana Cirstea — US Open Round of 128
ROU16
Grabher J.
Julia Grabher faces Sorana Cirstea in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Sorana Cirstea is the paper favourite — ranked #17, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 64 — but Julia Grabher arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on hard to Sorana Cirstea's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Cirstea S. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Julia Grabher 90 games in 14 days, Sorana Cirstea 77.
- Under pressure: Sorana Cirstea has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 67 vs Julia Grabher's 16).
- Head-to-head: Sorana Cirstea leads the head-to-head 2–0, 0–1 on hard. Last met at Istanbul 2022.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadGrabher J.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 90 games (7d) · Cirstea S.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-18 | Istanbul | QF | clay | Sorana Cirstea | 7-5 6-1 |
| 2020-11-09 | Linz | R32 | hard | Sorana Cirstea | 2-3 |