Alex Michelsen vs Federico Cina — US Open Round of 128
ITAQ
Michelsen A.
Alex Michelsen faces Federico Cina in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Alex Michelsen is the paper favourite — ranked #45, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 230-point hard Elo advantage — but Federico Cina arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 6 on hard to Alex Michelsen's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Michelsen A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Alex Michelsen 19 games in 14 days, Federico Cina 77.
- Under pressure: Alex Michelsen has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 62 vs Federico Cina's 42).
- Last match: Federico Cina dropped the opening set before beating Bu Yunchaokete 3–6 6–4 7–5.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMichelsen A.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Cina F.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 77 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.