Jan Choinski vs Botic Van De Zandschulp — US Open Round of 128
GBR
Choinski J.
Jan Choinski faces Botic Van De Zandschulp in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Botic Van De Zandschulp is the paper favourite — ranked #71, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage — but Jan Choinski has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Van De Zandschulp B. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Jan Choinski comes in with 5 days of rest and 49 games in 14d, vs Botic Van De Zandschulp's 2 and 73.
- Head-to-head: Jan Choinski leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Germany F2 2018.
- Stage: Botic Van De Zandschulp defends last year's round of 128.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadChoinski J.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Van De Zandschulp B.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 50 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-22 | Germany F2 | QF | carpet | Jan Choinski | 6-1 6-3 |