Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jan Lennard Struff — US Open Round of 128
Ugo Carabelli C.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli faces Jan Lennard Struff in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Jan Lennard Struff holds the paper edge — ranked #44, defending last year's round of 16.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Lennard Struff J. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Camilo Ugo Carabelli 35 games in 14 days, Jan Lennard Struff 19.
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Jan Lennard Struff grades 35 on serve, Camilo Ugo Carabelli 39 on return.
- Stage: Camilo Ugo Carabelli defends last year's round of 128; Jan Lennard Struff defends last year's round of 16.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadUgo Carabelli C.: 8 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Lennard Struff J.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.