Alex Molcan vs Benjamin Bonzi — US Open Round of 128
US Open · ATP · Round of 128
SVK#84ATP
1742ELO
1653Hard ELO
$303kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
28 yrs · 178 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LLWWLWWWLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
#109ATP
1749ELO
1713Hard ELO
$396kYTD
$4.6MCAREER
30 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWWLL
Molcan A.vs
Bonzi B.
Alex Molcan faces Benjamin Bonzi in the US Open round of 128 on hard.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTCMolcan A.48%
Bonzi B.52%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Benjamin Bonzi grades 37 on serve, Alex Molcan 78 on return.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Alex Molcan has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 72 vs 27).
- Fatigue load: Benjamin Bonzi carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 months5 common opponents · Molcan A. 2–3 · Bonzi B. 2–5
Both lost · same surface · 9 months apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
4.2Hard Elo 1652
Surface ELO5.8+60 Hard Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1742
ELO gap5.1Overall Elo 1749
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
4.14 of last 10 on hard
Surface form6.36 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transitionContext
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts6.0Reached the R32 here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
34 vs 29 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
55%
Service points won·Even
63%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
34%
Break points saved·Even
65%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.5
5.3
Double faults / match·Even
1.7
1.6
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonServe-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.