
Anna Blinkova faces Anna Kalinskaya in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Anna Kalinskaya holds the paper edge — ranked #22, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 210-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Clear favourite · Kalinskaya A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Blinkova A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Kalinskaya A.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
No previous meetings on record.
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About