Taylor Fritz vs Darwin BlanchUS Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
#10ATP
1909ELO
1839Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$31MCAREER
28 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWWWWW
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
#241ATP
1551ELO
1483Hard ELO
18 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LLLLLLLLWW
Fritz T.
vs
Blanch D.

Taylor Fritz faces Darwin Blanch in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Taylor Fritz holds the paper edge — ranked #10, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 360-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Fritz T.88%
Blanch D.12%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Fritz T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Fritz T. 1–0 · Blanch D. 0–1 · small sample
Fritz T. better · same surface · 9 months apart
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.4+355 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.6Hard Elo 1483
9.5Overall Elo 1909
ELO gap
0.5Overall Elo 1551
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.58 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
1.32 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 8
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
7.0Reached the quarters here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

37 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
80%
74%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
72%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
33%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
15.9
5.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.7
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Fritz T.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Blanch D.

Blanch D.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Fritz T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
85
89

Fritz T.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Blanch D.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw