Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka — US Open Round of 128
SUIWC
Berrettini M.
Matteo Berrettini faces Stan Wawrinka in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Matteo Berrettini holds the paper edge — ranked #43, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 130-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Berrettini M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Matteo Berrettini comes in with 14 days of rest and 32 games in 14d, vs Stan Wawrinka's 9 and 45.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Matteo Berrettini has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 75 vs 53).
- Head-to-head: Matteo Berrettini leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Wimbledon 2026.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadBerrettini M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Wawrinka S.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Wimbledon | R128 | grass | Matteo Berrettini | 7-6 6-7 6-7 6-7 |