Zizou Bergs vs Carlos TabernerUS Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
#35ATP
1808ELO
1757Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$4.1MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWLLWWW
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
#400ATP
1610ELO
1445Hard ELO
$102kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
29 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWLLLL
Bergs Z.
vs
Taberner C.

Zizou Bergs faces Carlos Taberner in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Zizou Bergs holds the paper edge — ranked #35, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 310-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Bergs Z.92%
Taberner C.8%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Bergs Z. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.9+312 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.1Hard Elo 1445
7.5Overall Elo 1808
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1610
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.84 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
1.62 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

34 vs 2 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
61%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
74%
61%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
52%
36%
Service points won·Clear edge
64%
51%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
25%
Break points saved·Dominant
63%
38%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.8
1.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
7.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 2). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Bergs Z.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Taberner C.

Taberner C.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Bergs Z.

Serve advantage — Bergs Z.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
56
41
Break points saved·Dominant
89
49
Break points won·Dominant
11
59
Deciding sets·Even
90
86
Tiebreaks·Dominant
75
9

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
88
100

Bergs Z.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Taberner C.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw