Sara Bejlek vs Cristina Bucsa — US Open Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Round of 128
Sara Bejlek
CZE28
Sara Bejlek
#29WTA
1776ELO
1749Hard ELO
$682kYTD
$1.7MCAREER
20 yrs · 163 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWLWLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
Cristina Bucsa
ESP
Cristina Bucsa
#40WTA
1722ELO
1710Hard ELO
$900kYTD
$5.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLLLLLL
Bejlek S.
vs
Bucsa C.

Sara Bejlek faces Cristina Bucsa in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Sara Bejlek holds the paper edge — ranked #29, a roughly 40-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Bejlek S.63%
Bucsa C.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Bejlek S. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Sara Bejlek comes in with 7 days of rest and 120 games in 14d, vs Cristina Bucsa's 2 and 57.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Sara Bejlek has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 79 vs 22).
  • Surface form: Sara Bejlek 5 of 7, Cristina Bucsa 2 of 7 on hard recently — Sara Bejlek the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
6 common opponents · Bejlek S. 5–2 · Bucsa C. 2–5
Bejlek S. better · same surface · 7 months apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bejlek S.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Bucsa C.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5+39 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1710
5.7Overall Elo 1776
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1722
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.07 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.23 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

25 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
Bejlek S.Bucsa C.
1st serve in·Even
64%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
59%
61%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
40%
Service points won·Even
55%
53%
Return points won·Even
48%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
43%
Aces / match·Even
0.8
0.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Bejlek S.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Bucsa C.

Bucsa C.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Bejlek S.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Bejlek S.Bucsa C.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
79
22
Break points saved·Dominant
77
16
Break points won·Clear edge
97
83
Deciding sets·Dominant
95
35
Tiebreaks·Dominant
61
5

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Bejlek S.Bucsa C.
Freshness·Even
80
79

Bejlek S.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Bucsa C.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw