Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Baez — US Open Round of 128
USA16
Nakashima B.
Brandon Nakashima faces Sebastian Baez in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Brandon Nakashima holds the paper edge — ranked #17, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 64.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Nakashima B. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Brandon Nakashima leads on Serve Rating (60), Sebastian Baez on Return Rating (62).
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Sebastian Baez has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 75 vs 43).
- Fatigue load: Brandon Nakashima carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadNakashima B.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Baez S.: 3 days rest · 5 matches, 98 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | R128 | grass | Brandon Nakashima | 6-2 6-3 6-4 |