Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth — US Open Round of 128
ITA30
Arnaldi M.
Matteo Arnaldi faces James Duckworth in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Matteo Arnaldi is the paper favourite — ranked #34, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage — but James Duckworth arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on hard to Matteo Arnaldi's 1.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Arnaldi M. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Matteo Arnaldi comes in with 14 days of rest and 30 games in 14d, vs James Duckworth's 0 and 133.
- Serve & return: James Duckworth brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 35), Matteo Arnaldi the stronger return game (Return Rating 46).
- Surface form: Matteo Arnaldi 1 of 4, James Duckworth 3 of 4 on hard recently — James Duckworth the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadArnaldi M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Duckworth J.: played today · 5 matches, 102 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.