Aidan Mayo vs Andres AndradeKingston 2 Final

Kingston 2 · CHALLENGER · Final
#581ATP
1380ELO
1359Hard ELO
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWLLWW
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
#243ATP
1505ELO
1427Hard ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWLWWL
Mayo A.
vs
Andrade A.

Aidan Mayo faces Andres Andrade in the Kingston 2 final on hard. Andres Andrade holds the paper edge — ranked #243, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Mayo A.54%
Andrade A.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Andres Andrade has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 44 vs 12).
  • Fatigue load: Both played two three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
  • Win streak: Both arrive on four-match winning runs.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Mayo A. 0–1 · Andrade A. 1–0 · small sample
Andrade A. better · different surfaces (Hard × Clay) · incl. team event · ⚠ lower-tier event
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.2Hard Elo 1359
Surface ELO
5.8+68 Hard Elo edge
3.4Overall Elo 1380
ELO gap
6.6Overall Elo 1505
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
7.47 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.67 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

11 vs 33 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
59%
Return points won·Even
41%
42%
Break points saved·Even
60%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.2
2.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.2
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Mayo A.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Andrade A.

Andrade A.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Mayo A.

Serve advantage — Mayo A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
12
44
Break points saved·Clear edge
68
53
Break points won·Dominant
1
50
Deciding sets·Dominant
7
45
Tiebreaks·Dominant
52
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
47
54

Mayo A.: played today · 6 matches, 139 games (7d) · Andrade A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 87 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
18°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 74%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw