Daniel Michalski vs Matyas CernyM25 Poznan Quarter-final

M25 Poznan · ITF · Quarter-final
#324ATP
1435ELO
1386Clay ELO
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 28 August 2026 ·
clay
#771ATP
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLLLWWW
Michalski D.
6-1 6-4
Cerny M.
Michalski D.
662
Cerny M.
140

Daniel Michalski advanced to the semifinals of the M25 Poznan tournament, defeating Matyas Cerny in the quarterfinals. Michalski won in straight sets, 6-1, 6-4. He converted 75% of his break points and held a 93% first-serve win percentage in the match.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
60%
62%
Return points won·Even
38%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
57%
Aces / match·Even
2.4
2.1
Double faults / match·Even
1.8
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Michalski D.82%
Cerny M.18%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Michalski D. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.54 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
2.12 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
97

Michalski D.: 16 days rest · Cerny M.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 42%

Draw