Miguel Tobon vs Rodrigo Pacheco MendezKingston 2 Quarter-final

Kingston 2 · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#510ATP
1328ELO
1301Hard ELO
20 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLLLLL
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 27 August 2026 ·
hard
Grandstand · 1st on
#294ATP
1527ELO
1487Hard ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLWLLL
Tobon M.
2-6 4-6
Pacheco Mendez R.
Tobon M.
240
Pacheco Mendez R.
662

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez defeated Miguel Tobon in the quarterfinals of the Kingston 2 hard-court tournament, winning 6-2, 6-4. Pacheco Mendez hit 9 aces to Tobon's 4 and won 96% of his first-serve points. He converted 25% of his break points and won three service breaks to advance to the semifinals.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
54%
Service points won·Even
65%
65%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
56%
69%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.6
4.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.7
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Tobon M.38%
Pacheco Mendez R.62%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Pacheco Mendez R. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.7Hard Elo 1301
Surface ELO
7.3+186 Hard Elo edge
2.5Overall Elo 1328
ELO gap
7.5Overall Elo 1526
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.65 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
70
55

Tobon M.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 49 games (7d) · Pacheco Mendez R.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 84 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
23°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 77%

Draw