Bu Yunchaokete vs Rio NoguchiUS Open Qualifying Round of 256

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 256
#124ATP
1709ELO
1644Hard ELO
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 26 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 6 · 4th on
#218ATP
1532ELO
1513Hard ELO
27 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWLL
Yunchaokete B.
4-6 6-4 6-2
Noguchi R.
Yunchaokete B.
4662
Noguchi R.
6421

Bu Yunchaokete defeated Rio Noguchi in the US Open qualifying second round on a hard court. The match ended with a score of 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 in favor of Bu Yunchaokete. Key stats included 9 aces and 4 double faults for Bu Yunchaokete, compared to 0 aces and 2 double faults for Rio Noguchi.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
65%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
58%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
43%
Break points saved·Clear edge
72%
57%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.9
1.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.3
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
3
23
Break points saved·Dominant
92
25
Break points won·Clear edge
8
26
Deciding sets·Dominant
0
82
Tiebreaks·Even
0
4

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Yunchaokete B.70%
Noguchi R.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Yunchaokete B. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.6+131 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Hard Elo 1512
7.2Overall Elo 1709
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1532
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
5.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.15 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
56
78

Yunchaokete B.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 79 games (7d) · Noguchi R.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw