Marvin Moeller vs Matias SotoAugsburg Round of 16

Augsburg · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#274ATP
1396ELO
1383Clay ELO
27 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 26 August 2026 ·
clay
Centre Court · 2nd on
#261ATP
1421ELO
1412Clay ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWLWWW
Moeller M.
6-3 7-6
Soto M.
Moeller M.
6782
Soto M.
3660

Marvin Moeller advanced to the quarterfinals of the Augsburg tournament with a straight-sets victory over Matias Soto in the Round of 16. Moeller won 6-3, 7-6, with a stronger service game highlighted by 9 aces and only 2 double faults. Moeller converted 33% of break points and secured 2 service breaks to Soto's 1.

Around the match

  • I got off to a good start with an early break and safely converted that advantage to win the first set. I also controlled the second set, but became a bit tense towards the end and I'm just glad I managed to finish it in two sets.

    Moeller M.tennisnet.com

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
50%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
41%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.0
4.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (14 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
48
34
Break points saved·Slight edge
43
51
Break points won·Dominant
44
14
Deciding sets·Even
73
69
Tiebreaks·Dominant
91
56

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Moeller M.54%
Soto M.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.6Clay Elo 1383
Surface ELO
5.4+29 Clay Elo edge
4.7Overall Elo 1396
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1421
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.67 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
70
81

Moeller M.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d) · Soto M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 57%

Draw