Shintaro Mochizuki vs Braden Shick

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 64

JPN

Shintaro Mochizuki

#117ATP

1475ELO

1425Hard ELO

$243kYTD

$1.6MCAREER

23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWLLLWLWLW

2 — 0

Sets

Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · ~14:30

hard

Court 12 · 3rd on

USA

Braden Shick

#215ATP

1385ELO

1358Hard ELO

22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLWWLWLLWL

Mochizuki S.

6-4 6-1

Shick B.

Mochizuki S.

662

Shick B.

410

Shintaro Mochizuki defeated Braden Shick in the US Open qualifying round 64. Mochizuki won with a score of 6-4, 6-1. Key stats included Mochizuki's 81% first-serve win percentage and five service breaks, compared to Shick's 55% and one break.

Key context

Match story: Shintaro Mochizuki dropped just 5 games past Braden Shick.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Mochizuki S.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Shick B.

Shick B.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Mochizuki S.

Serve advantage — Shick B.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mochizuki S.Shick B.

Serve

—

Return

—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season

Mochizuki S.Shick B.

1st serve in·Even

51%

54%

1st serve points won·Even

68%

70%

2nd serve points won·Even

47%

48%

Service points won·Even

58%

60%

Return points won·Even

39%

41%

Break points saved·Even

58%

60%

Aces / match·Even

3.4

3.8

Double faults / match·Dominant

4.9

3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC

Mochizuki S.69%

Shick B.31%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Mochizuki S. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Mochizuki S.

5.4

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Shick B.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.8+67 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.2Hard Elo 1358

6.1Overall Elo 1475

ELO gap

3.9Overall Elo 1384

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

4.65 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

7.78 of last 10 on hard

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Context

6.0Reached the R64 here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load

Mochizuki S.Shick B.

Freshness·Clear edge

Mochizuki S.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 58 games (7d) · Shick B.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather

25°CClear

Wind 15 km/hHumidity 61%

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Braden Shick — US Open Qualifying Round of 64

Key context

Head to head

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard

Statistics

Win Probability

Umpiry Score

Freshness

Conditions

Draw

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard