Mees Rottgering vs Tomas MachacWinston-Salem Round of 32

Winston-Salem · ATP · Round of 32
#389ATP
1468ELO
1449Hard ELO
19 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 26 August 2026 ·
hard
#58ATP
1866ELO
1829Hard ELO
$832kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWWLW
Rottgering M.
6-2 7-6
Machac T.
Rottgering M.
6772
Machac T.
2610

Mees Rottgering defeated Tomas Machac in the Round of 32 at the Winston-Salem tournament, winning 6-2, 7-6 on hard courts. Rottgering hit 8 aces to Machac's 5 and converted 3 of 11 break points, while Machac converted 1 of 7. Rottgering also had fewer double faults, with 1 to Machac's 7.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
62%
Return points won·Even
38%
36%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.0
5.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.3
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (4 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Rottgering M.16%
Machac T.84%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Machac T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.2Hard Elo 1449
Surface ELO
9.8+380 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1468
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 1866
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.67 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.25 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
67
90

Rottgering M.: 3 days rest · 5 matches, 99 games (7d) · Machac T.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 53%

Draw