Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel SchwaerzlerUS Open Qualifying Round of 64

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 64
#187ATP
1545ELO
1393Hard ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 26 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 9 · 1st on
#171ATP
1577ELO
1519Hard ELO
$102kYTD
$301kCAREER
20 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWWWLW
Guerrieri A.
3-6 6-4 6-1
Schwaerzler J.
Guerrieri A.
3662
Schwaerzler J.
6411

Andrea Guerrieri defeated Joel Schwaerzler in the US Open qualifying round 64. The match ended with a score of 3-6, 6-4, 6-1 in favor of Guerrieri. Key stats included Guerrieri's 7 aces and 72% first-serve win percentage compared to Schwaerzler's 2 aces and 63% first-serve win percentage.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
72%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
69%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.4
6.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
62
55
Break points saved·Slight edge
80
89
Break points won·Dominant
40
4
Deciding sets·Even
84
83
Tiebreaks·
77

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Guerrieri A.57%
Schwaerzler J.43%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.4Hard Elo 1393
Surface ELO
6.6+126 Hard Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1545
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1577
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
7.07 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.87 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
62
73

Guerrieri A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 74 games (7d) · Schwaerzler J.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw