Lucia Bronzetti vs Polina IatcenkoUS Open Qualifying Round of 64

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 64
#135WTA
1622ELO
1551Hard ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWLWWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 26 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 10 · 1st on
#160WTA
1605ELO
1567Hard ELO
22 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLWLLLWW
Bronzetti L.
2-6 6-3 3-6
Iatcenko P.
Bronzetti L.
2631
Iatcenko P.
6362

Polina Iatcenko defeated Lucia Bronzetti in the US Open qualifying round 64. The match ended with a score of 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 in favor of Iatcenko. Iatcenko had 3 aces and 5 double faults, while Bronzetti had 5 aces and 1 double fault; Iatcenko won 71% of her first-serve points and converted 71% of her break points, compared to 61% and 43% for Bronzetti; Iatcenko had 5 service breaks to Bronzetti's 3.

Key context

  • Match story: Polina Iatcenko closed it out in three sets, 6–2 3–6 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
44%
Service points won·Even
55%
56%
Return points won·Even
47%
44%
Break points saved·Even
53%
51%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.7
2.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (52 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Bronzetti L.53%
Iatcenko P.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Hard Elo 1551
Surface ELO
5.2+16 Hard Elo edge
5.2Overall Elo 1622
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1605
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.45 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.75 of last 10 on hard
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
84
72

Bronzetti L.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 31 games (7d) · Iatcenko P.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw