Juan Manuel La Serna vs Hynek BartonAugsburg Round of 16

Augsburg · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#288ATP
1463ELO
1449Clay ELO
22 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWLWWW
Sets
Wednesday, 26 August 2026 ·
clay
#268ATP
1570ELO
1535Clay ELO
22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWLWLWWL
La Serna J.
vs
Barton H.

Juan Manuel La Serna faces Hynek Barton in the Augsburg round of 16 on clay. Hynek Barton is the paper favourite — ranked #268, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage — but Juan Manuel La Serna arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on clay to Hynek Barton's 5.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
La Serna J.37%
Barton H.63%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Barton H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.9Clay Elo 1449
Surface ELO
6.1+86 Clay Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1463
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1570
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.87 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

27 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
46%
39%
Break points saved·Even
59%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.8
6.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.1
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
La Serna J.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Barton H.

Barton H.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs La Serna J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
80
81

La Serna J.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d) · Barton H.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°CPartly cloudy
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 64%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw