Hugo Grenier vs Sebastian Baez — Winston-Salem Round of 32

Winston-Salem · ATP · Round of 32
Hugo Grenier
FRALL
Hugo Grenier
#255ATP
1548ELO
1523Hard ELO
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWLWLLW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 26 August 2026 ·
hard
Sebastian Baez
ARG10
Sebastian Baez
#50ATP
1759ELO
1709Hard ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLWL
Grenier H.
5-7 6-7
Baez S.
Grenier H.
5620
Baez S.
7772

Sebastian Baez defeated Hugo Grenier in the Round of 32 at the Winston-Salem tournament. Baez won despite losing the first set 7-5 and the second set 7-6. Baez converted 56% of his break points and made 5 service breaks to Grenier's 4.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Grenier H.Baez S.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
65%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
43%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
35%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
52%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.3
1.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.3
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Grenier H.Baez S.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
25
75
Break points saved·Clear edge
62
86
Break points won·Dominant
1
77
Deciding sets·Slight edge
85
90
Tiebreaks·Dominant
5
62

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Grenier H.36%
Baez S.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Baez S. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Grenier H.
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Baez S.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.7Hard Elo 1523
Surface ELO
7.3+186 Hard Elo edge
2.4Overall Elo 1548
ELO gap
7.6Overall Elo 1759
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.95 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.45 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Grenier H.Baez S.
Freshness·Even
66
64

Grenier H.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 91 games (7d) · Baez S.: 3 days rest · 5 matches, 98 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
22°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 59%

Draw