Anastasiya Soboleva vs Alexandra ShubladzeUS Open Qualifying Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 128
#194WTA
1533ELO
1396Hard ELO
22 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 16 · 2nd on
#190WTA
1515ELO
1497Hard ELO
20 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLWWWW
Soboleva A.
7-6 1-6 4-6
Shubladze A.
Soboleva A.
77141
Shubladze A.
60662

Alexandra Shubladze defeated Anastasiya Soboleva in the US Open qualifying first round. The match ended with a score of 7-6, 1-6, 6-4 in favor of Shubladze. Key stats included Shubladze's 4 service breaks and 50% break point conversion rate, compared to Soboleva's 1 service break and 5% break point conversion rate.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-01-22W15 Antalya 2FclayAnastasiya Soboleva6-2 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
73%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
47%
Service points won·Even
56%
58%
Return points won·Even
49%
53%
Break points saved·Even
55%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.2
0.3
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (50 vs 47). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Soboleva A.28%
Shubladze A.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Shubladze A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.7Hard Elo 1396
Surface ELO
6.3+101 Hard Elo edge
5.2Overall Elo 1533
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1514
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
4.04 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.28 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
83
73

Soboleva A.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Shubladze A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 61%

Draw