Nathan Ponwith vs H. Sakagawa — M15 Champaign Qualifying Round of 16

M15 Champaign · ITF · Qualifying Round of 16
USAQ
Nathan Ponwith
#1315ATP
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
JPN
H. Sakagawa
#1853ATP
25 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLWLWWL
Ponwith N.
7-5 4-6 10-5
Sakagawa H.
Ponwith N.
74102
Sakagawa H.
5651

Nathan Ponwith defeated H. Sakagawa in the quarterfinals of the M15 Champaign tournament. The match was decided in three sets, with Ponwith winning 7-5, 4-6, 1-0. The players converted an equal number of service breaks, two each, in the contest.

Key context

  • Match story: Nathan Ponwith closed it out in three sets, 7–5 4–6 10–5.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Ponwith N.Sakagawa H.
1st serve in·Slight edge
73%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
63%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
62%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Clear edge
25%
41%
Break points saved·Clear edge
60%
78%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.0
1.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.0
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (1 vs 2). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Ponwith N.33%
Sakagawa H.67%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Sakagawa H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Ponwith N.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Sakagawa H.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.44 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
5.2Won 53% in USA (183)
Country comfort
5.0Won 50% in USA (22)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
26°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 55%

Draw