Sebastian Ofner vs Kei Nishikori — US Open Qualifying Round of 256

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 256
Sebastian Ofner
AUT
Sebastian Ofner
#125ATP
1713ELO
1655Hard ELO
$349kYTD
$3.8MCAREER
30 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLWLWL
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Stadium 17 · 1st on
JPNWC
Kei Nishikori
#477ATP
1714ELO
1680Hard ELO
36 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLWLWL
Ofner S.
1-6 6-2 2-6
Nishikori K.
Ofner S.
1621
Nishikori K.
6262

Kei Nishikori defeated Sebastian Ofner in the US Open qualifying first round. The match ended with a score of 1-6, 6-2, 2-6 in favor of Nishikori. Key stats included Nishikori's 4 service breaks to Ofner's 2, and Nishikori converting 36% of break points to Ofner's 29%.

Around the match

  • Nishikori's US Open match against Ofner could be his final appearance at the USTA National Tennis Center as he heads toward retirement.

    Nishikori K.Last Word On Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Kei Nishikori closed it out in three sets, 6–1 2–6 6–2.

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-03-18Miami MastersR128hardSebastian Ofner6-3 6-4

Statistics

This season
Ofner S.Nishikori K.
1st serve in·Even
58%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
55%
Service points won·Even
66%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
37%
Break points saved·Clear edge
62%
50%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.3
2.6
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Ofner S.Nishikori K.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
64
90
Break points saved·Slight edge
88
94
Break points won·Dominant
46
80
Deciding sets·Clear edge
81
100
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
75
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Ofner S.37%
Nishikori K.63%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Nishikori K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Ofner S.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Nishikori K.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1655
Surface ELO
5.3+26 Hard Elo edge
5.0Overall Elo 1713
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1714
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
5.87 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.94 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 6
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Ofner S.Nishikori K.
Freshness·Clear edge
87
67

Ofner S.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d) · Nishikori K.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 66 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw