Shintaro Mochizuki vs Daniel MilavskyUS Open Qualifying Round of 256

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 256
#117ATP
1475ELO
1425Hard ELO
$243kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 7 · 1st on
#316ATP
1349ELO
1337Hard ELO
24 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWL
Mochizuki S.
7-6 6-4
Milavsky D.
Mochizuki S.
7762
Milavsky D.
6540

Shintaro Mochizuki defeated Daniel Milavsky in the first round of US Open qualifying, 7-6, 6-4. Mochizuki hit 5 aces and 9 double faults, while converting 30% of break points and winning 76% of first-serve points. Milavsky recorded 7 aces and 3 double faults, converting 40% of break points and winning 70% of first-serve points.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
51%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
66%
Return points won·Even
39%
35%
Break points saved·Clear edge
58%
76%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.4
8.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.9
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Mochizuki S.67%
Milavsky D.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Mochizuki S. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+88 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1337
6.6Overall Elo 1475
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1348
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.05 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
70
88

Mochizuki S.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 58 games (7d) · Milavsky D.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw