Darja Semenistaja vs Hayu KinoshitaUS Open Qualifying Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 128
#109WTA
1654ELO
1568Hard ELO
23 yrs · 169 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLLLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 12 · 3rd on
#223WTA
1546ELO
1531Hard ELO
19 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLWLLW
Semenistaja D.
6-2 7-5
Kinoshita H.
Semenistaja D.
672
Kinoshita H.
250

Darja Semenistaja defeated Hayu Kinoshita in the first round of US Open qualifying, 6-2, 7-5. Semenistaja served 0 aces and 0 double faults, while Kinoshita had 3 aces and 4 double faults. Semenistaja won 70% of her first serves and converted 50% of her break points, ultimately securing 5 service breaks to Kinoshita's 2.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
58%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
53%
58%
Return points won·Even
46%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
46%
57%
Aces / match·Even
1.6
1.6
Double faults / match·Even
1.1
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (47 vs 45). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Semenistaja D.50%
Kinoshita H.50%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5+37 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1531
6.3Overall Elo 1654
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1546
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.75 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.36 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 6
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
70
91

Semenistaja D.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d) · Kinoshita H.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 61%

Draw